Ural 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Krylia Sovetov at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ural 1.30 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ural have won 0, Krylia Sovetov 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 42% versus Krylia Sovetov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 44% | Krylia Sovetov 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.36 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.758 / defence 1.159 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.021 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.274. Ural's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Ural games / 43 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 32% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 38%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Krylia Sovetov 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 50% | Krylia Sovetov 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 32% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Ural 1.36 / Krylia Sovetov 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.758 / def 1.159 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.021 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Krylia Sovetov xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Ural 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 32% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ural and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in?
Ural (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.76x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.37
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ural xG
Total xG
2.86
1.51
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ural and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ural and 1.51 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Ural have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 10D 21L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 15W 10D 18L from 43 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.07 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.95 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Krylia Sovetov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 36%, Krylia Sovetov 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ural) and 54% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 50% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ural's recent matches and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ural's recent games and 54% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ural defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.36 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.51 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 32% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 38%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ural win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 44%, Krylia Sovetov 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.07 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.