Ural 0-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Krylia Sovetov at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ural 1.10 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ural have won 0, Krylia Sovetov 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 30% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ural 22% | Krylia Sovetov 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.73 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.612 / defence 0.953 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.826 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.219. Ural's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Ural games / 23 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 39%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Krylia Sovetov 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ural's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 30% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Ural 0.73 / Krylia Sovetov 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.612 / def 0.953 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.826 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Krylia Sovetov xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Ural 0 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 26% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ural and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.61x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
26%
3.84
35%
2.85
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Ural xG
Total xG
1.69
0.96
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.84
26%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 17.7 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Ural and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Ural and 0.96 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Ural have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 9D 10L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Krylia Sovetov are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (1W 6D 4L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.82 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Ural or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Krylia Sovetov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 27%, Krylia Sovetov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Ural and 46% for Krylia Sovetov.
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 64% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ural's recent matches and 54% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Ural's recent games and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.73 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.96 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.61 / defence 0.95 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 26% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 39%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 22%, Krylia Sovetov 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.