Ural 3-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ural face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees FC Krasnodar travel to Ekaterinburg Arena to take on Ural. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Ural are significantly better at Ekaterinburg Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Krasnodar have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Krasnodar — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Krasnodar, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Ural.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Krasnodar have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 47% versus FC Krasnodar 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 56% | FC Krasnodar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.92 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.790 / defence 1.208 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.126. Ural's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Ural games / 45 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 22% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 49%. Fair-value odds: Ural 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | FC Krasnodar 2.04. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Ural 50% | FC Krasnodar 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 22% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ural 0.92 / FC Krasnodar 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.790 / def 1.208 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.088 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC Krasnodar xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Ural vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC Krasnodar?
Ural 3 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Ural vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Ural vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 22% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ural and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Krasnodar?
Record (5 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 4W.
What form are Ural and FC Krasnodar in?
Ural (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.79x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
22%
4.55
29%
3.40
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ural xG
Total xG
2.40
1.48
FC Krasnodar xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ural and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ural and 1.48 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ural come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 10D 21L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.78 PPG from 45 outings (22W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ural's home form reads 8W 4D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (8W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.91 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar in 60%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 14W 10D 21L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 22W 14D 9L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.22 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ural or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and FC Krasnodar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when FC Krasnodar won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC Krasnodar?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, FC Krasnodar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Ural 3-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Ural and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 52%, FC Krasnodar 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ural) and 56% (FC Krasnodar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 35%; Ural have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Ural's games and 61% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ural's matches and 56% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do Ural and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat FC Krasnodar 3-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.92 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.48 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ural beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.79 / defence 1.21 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.09 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 22% | Draw 29% | FC Krasnodar 49%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ural win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 56%, FC Krasnodar 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Ural winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ural (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.