Ural 0-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ural at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Fakel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ural welcome Fakel to Ekaterinburg Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural's home record at Ekaterinburg Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fakel have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ural are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ural, 0 for Fakel and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Ural winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fakel in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 43% versus Fakel 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 54% | Fakel 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.52 xG and Fakel 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.869 / defence 0.977 | Fakel attack 0.736 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.187. Data: 37 Ural games / 37 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 50% | Draw 31% | Fakel 19%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Fakel 5.26. Ural hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 50% | Fakel 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 50% | Draw 31% | Fakel 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Ural 1.52 / Fakel 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.869 / def 0.977 | Fakel attack 0.736 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Ural (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Fakel xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Fakel kick off?
Ural vs Fakel kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Fakel?
Ural 0 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Ural vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Fakel part of?
Ural vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 50% chance of winning, Fakel a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ural and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Fakel?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 1W | Draws 1 | Fakel 0W.
What form are Ural and Fakel in?
Ural (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Fakel (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ural's attack rating (0.87) and Fakel's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.23
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ural xG
Total xG
2.37
0.85
Fakel xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
24.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ural and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ural and 0.85 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ural come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 7D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fakel sit at 1.05 PPG from 37 outings (9W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.32 PPG, Fakel on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ural's home form reads 8W 2D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Fakel have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Fakel in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 14W 7D 16L in their last 37 games (1.32 PPG), while Fakel have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Fakel away?
Ural's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.44 PPG; Fakel away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Fakel runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ural's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ural
3
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Fakel?
From 4 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Fakel have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Fakel 0-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Fakel?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 50%, Fakel 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ural) and 39% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 33% of games; Fakel in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ural's recent matches and 44% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ural's recent games and 39% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Fakel tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fakel in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ural's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Ural and Fakel drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.52 xG and Fakel 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ural fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fakel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Fakel attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 50% | Draw 31% | Fakel 19%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 54%, Fakel 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fakel's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.32 PPG, Fakel 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.