Ural 0-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 36%, yet in-form Akhmat provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ural vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Akhmat at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 09:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 1W 5D 3L this season (9 games, 0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 3W 0D 6L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Akhmat — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ural have won 0, Akhmat 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Akhmat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 30% versus Akhmat 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 20% | Akhmat 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.05 xG and Akhmat 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.776 / defence 1.019 | Akhmat attack 0.791 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.222. Ural's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Akhmat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ural games / 20 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 33%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Akhmat 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ural are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Ural 33% | Akhmat 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Ural 1.05 / Akhmat 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.776 / def 1.019 | Akhmat attack 0.791 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ural (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Akhmat xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Akhmat kick off?
Ural vs Akhmat kicked off at 09:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Ural 0 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Ural vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Akhmat part of?
Ural vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 36% chance of winning, Akhmat a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ural and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Ural and Akhmat in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.78x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.25
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Ural xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Akhmat xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ural and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ural and 0.98 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Ural have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 7D 9L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat's form line: 10W 0D 10L from 20 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Akhmat are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ural have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Akhmat in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 0D 10L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Akhmat away?
Akhmat's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.89 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ural or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Akhmat in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Akhmat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ural's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
6
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
From 8 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Akhmat have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Akhmat 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 33%, Akhmat 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 11% (Ural) and 67% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 56% of games; Akhmat in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ural's recent matches and 67% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Ural's recent games and 67% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Akhmat tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ural's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural and Akhmat finished level at 0-0 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.05 xG and Akhmat 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ural fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Akhmat landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Akhmat attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 36% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 33%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 20%, Akhmat 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akhmat's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ural (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.