Spartak Moscow 0-3 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 39%, yet in-form FC Krasnodar provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Krasnodar travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Spartak Moscow have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Krasnodar are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Spartak Moscow have won 3, FC Krasnodar 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended Spartak Moscow 1–0 FC Krasnodar — a Spartak Moscow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC Krasnodar trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 42% versus FC Krasnodar 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 49% | FC Krasnodar 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.30 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.218 / defence 0.703 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.256 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.235. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.09. Spartak Moscow have a tight defence (rating 0.703), which is pulling FC Krasnodar's projected output down. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 41 games and FC Krasnodar's last 41.
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 29%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.57 | Draw 3.08 | FC Krasnodar 3.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Krasnodar (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Krasnodar 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Spartak Moscow 1.30 / FC Krasnodar 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.218 / def 0.703 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.256 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Krasnodar xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar FAQs
What time does Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 3 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 39% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spartak Moscow's last 41 games and FC Krasnodar's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.08
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
FC Krasnodar xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.09 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 12D 10L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 24W 11D 6L from 41 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.68 PPG, FC Krasnodar on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 20 home games (13W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 8D 4L from their last 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.63 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; FC Krasnodar in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Spartak Moscow (Home) vs FC Krasnodar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Form FAQs
What form are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 24W 11D 6L in their last 41 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.20 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Krasnodar have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won FC Krasnodar 1-4 Spartak Moscow.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Spartak Moscow have won 4, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 35%, FC Krasnodar 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Spartak Moscow) and 40% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 55% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 40% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 75% of FC Krasnodar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Spartak Moscow 0-3 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.30 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.22 / defence 0.70 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.26 / defence 0.80, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 39% | Draw 32% | FC Krasnodar 29%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Krasnodar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 49%, FC Krasnodar 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.68 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.