Spartak Moscow 0-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Spartak Moscow welcome Akhmat to Otkritie Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Otkritie Bank Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Akhmat — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 2.10 PPG, Akhmat 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spartak Moscow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Spartak Moscow, 0 for Akhmat and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Akhmat trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 64% and Akhmat 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 54% | Akhmat 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.274 / defence 1.067 | Akhmat attack 1.081 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.291. Spartak Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Spartak Moscow games / 50 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 32%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Akhmat 3.12. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 60% | Akhmat 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.79 / Akhmat 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.274 / def 1.067 | Akhmat attack 1.081 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Akhmat xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 45% chance of winning, Akhmat a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (2 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.38
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.28
1.49
Akhmat xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.49 for Akhmat, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 22W 12D 16L from 50 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 22L across 50 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.56 PPG, Akhmat on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 9W 3D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Akhmat in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 23W 5D 22L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.88 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
5
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Akhmat have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Akhmat 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spartak Moscow at 67%, Akhmat at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Spartak Moscow and 62% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Spartak Moscow's games and 67% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 62% of Akhmat's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spartak Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow and Akhmat finished level at 0-0 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.79 xG and Akhmat 1.49 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Akhmat landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against Akhmat attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 45% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 32%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 54%, Akhmat 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.56 PPG, Akhmat 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.