Rubin 1-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rubin at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Krylia Sovetov make the trip to Kazan' Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rubin (all games): 3W 0D 0L across 3 Premier League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.00 PPG across 3 Premier League outings this season: 0W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in Rubin's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 33% versus Krylia Sovetov 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rubin 67% | Krylia Sovetov 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.31 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 1.097 / defence 0.954 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.771 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.914 / away 1.477. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Rubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Rubin games / 3 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 31%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Krylia Sovetov 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 33% | Krylia Sovetov 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 42% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Rubin 1.31 / Krylia Sovetov 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 1.097 / def 0.954 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.771 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.914 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Rubin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Krylia Sovetov xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Rubin 1 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 42% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rubin and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rubin's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.77x) against Rubin's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.64
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.09
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Rubin and 1.09 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Rubin have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 0L record — W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rubin are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 67%.
Defensively: Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Rubin or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rubin
3
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 33%, Krylia Sovetov 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rubin and 67% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rubin's recent matches and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rubin's matches and 67% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Rubin and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Rubin and Krylia Sovetov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.31 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.09 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 42% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 31%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 67%, Krylia Sovetov 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rubin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.