Rubin 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rubin vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rubin and CSKA Moscow meet at Kazan' Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rubin have posted 3W 2D 2L at Kazan' Arena — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rubin are significantly better at Kazan' Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 50% versus CSKA Moscow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 42% | CSKA Moscow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.20 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 1.041 / defence 1.246 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.949 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.157. Data: 12 Rubin games / 12 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 33% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 41%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | CSKA Moscow 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 57% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 33% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rubin 1.20 / CSKA Moscow 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 1.041 / def 1.246 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.949 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.37
CSKA Moscow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Rubin vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Rubin 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Rubin vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Rubin vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 33% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rubin and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rubin and CSKA Moscow in?
Rubin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rubin's attack rating (1.04) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.95x) against Rubin's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.78
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.56
1.37
CSKA Moscow xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rubin and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rubin and 1.37 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rubin come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Rubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rubin's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rubin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.42 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.33 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Rubin or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 6-1 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rubin
5
Draws
2
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and CSKA Moscow?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rubin 0-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 67%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rubin) and 50% (CSKA Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rubin's games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rubin vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rubin's matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Rubin and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.20 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.37 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 33% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 41%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 42%, CSKA Moscow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Rubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.