Rubin 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Rubin take on Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Rubin (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ak Bars Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ak Bars Arena this season.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Rubin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Akhmat (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Rubin, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Akhmat — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Rubin winning.
The historical record gives Rubin a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rubin — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Akhmat — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 35% versus Akhmat 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rubin 35% | Akhmat 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.95 xG and Akhmat 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.692 / defence 1.147 | Akhmat attack 0.832 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.016. Rubin's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Rubin games / 50 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 30% | Draw 39% | Akhmat 31%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Akhmat 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Rubin 40% | Akhmat 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 30% | Draw 39% | Akhmat 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Rubin 0.95 / Akhmat 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.692 / def 1.147 | Akhmat attack 0.832 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Akhmat xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Akhmat kick off?
Rubin vs Akhmat kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Rubin 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Rubin vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Akhmat part of?
Rubin vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 30% chance of winning, Akhmat a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rubin and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akhmat?
Record (3 meetings): Rubin 3W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are Rubin and Akhmat in?
Rubin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rubin's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.83x) against Rubin's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
39%
2.56
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Rubin xG
Total xG
1.92
0.97
Akhmat xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.2 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Rubin and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rubin and 0.97 for Akhmat, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Rubin have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 8W 5D 7L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rubin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akhmat.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rubin have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 0.95 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Akhmat away?
Rubin's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.20 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Rubin or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Akhmat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Rubin
0
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Akhmat?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 7, Akhmat have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Rubin 1-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Akhmat?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 40%, Akhmat 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rubin) and 40% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 40% of games; Akhmat in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rubin's recent matches and 40% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rubin's recent games and 40% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and Akhmat tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Akhmat 2-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.95 xG and Akhmat 0.97 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rubin beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.69 / defence 1.15 against Akhmat attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 30% | Draw 39% | Akhmat 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 35%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.