Krylia Sovetov 1-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Solidarnost Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 4D 3L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 0.90 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Spartak Moscow, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–5 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Spartak Moscow have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 54% and Spartak Moscow 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 48% | Spartak Moscow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.39 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.866 / defence 0.947 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.965 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.368. Data: 59 Krylia Sovetov games / 59 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Spartak Moscow 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.39 / Spartak Moscow 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.866 / def 0.947 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.965 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 38% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.87x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.25
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.64
1.25
Spartak Moscow xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.25 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 13D 27L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 25W 17D 17L from 59 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 1.19 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.64 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Spartak Moscow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 25W 17D 17L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.34 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 48%, Spartak Moscow 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Krylia Sovetov) and 48% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 66% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 48% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Spartak Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 1-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.39 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spartak Moscow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 31%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Spartak Moscow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.19 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.