Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 43%, yet in-form Spartak Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Samara Arena to take on Krylia Sovetov. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 4W 5D 1L at Samara Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samara Arena. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Spartak Moscow are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Spartak Moscow, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Krylia Sovetov.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Spartak Moscow have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spartak Moscow trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 53% versus Spartak Moscow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 47% | Spartak Moscow 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.43 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.042 / defence 0.905 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.222 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.049. Spartak Moscow have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Krylia Sovetov games / 57 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Spartak Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spartak Moscow (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Spartak Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.43 / Spartak Moscow 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.042 / def 0.905 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.222 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Spartak Moscow xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 43% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Record (9 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 7W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.04x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.82
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.59
1.16
Spartak Moscow xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.16 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 15D 28L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 31W 12D 14L from 57 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Venue Form
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.75 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 31W 12D 14L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.36 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Spartak Moscow have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Spartak Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Krylia Sovetov) and 46% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 46% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Spartak Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.43 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.22 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 43% | Draw 26% | Spartak Moscow 31%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Spartak Moscow 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.