Krylia Sovetov 0-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 3 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 4D 4L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 1.00 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Krasnodar in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, FC Krasnodar 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus FC Krasnodar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 42% | FC Krasnodar 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.18 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.718 / defence 1.014 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.169 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.312. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Krylia Sovetov games / 40 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 45%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | FC Krasnodar 2.22. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 60% | FC Krasnodar 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.18 / FC Krasnodar 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.718 / def 1.014 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.169 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC Krasnodar xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
Record (2 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 0 | FC Krasnodar 0W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.72x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.17x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.61
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.73
1.55
FC Krasnodar xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.55 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 9D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.75 PPG from 40 outings (20W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.58 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 20W 10D 10L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.37 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 0-6 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
5
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 47%, FC Krasnodar 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Krylia Sovetov) and 53% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 63% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 53% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Krylia Sovetov's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Krylia Sovetov and FC Krasnodar drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.18 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.72 / defence 1.01 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 45%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 42%, FC Krasnodar 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.