Krylia Sovetov 0-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 38%, yet in-form Akhmat provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Solidarnost Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Akhmat (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Akhmat are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 1W, Akhmat 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 51% versus Akhmat 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 45% | Akhmat 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.47 xG and Akhmat 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.874 / defence 1.000 | Akhmat attack 1.148 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.266. Data: 49 Krylia Sovetov games / 49 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 37%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Akhmat 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Akhmat 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.47 / Akhmat 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.874 / def 1.000 | Akhmat attack 1.148 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Akhmat xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 38% chance of winning, Akhmat a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (1.15x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
38%
2.63
25%
4.05
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.92
1.45
Akhmat xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.45 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 17W 10D 22L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 22L across 49 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.45 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 8W 3D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.35 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 22W 5D 22L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.43 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 48%, Akhmat 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Krylia Sovetov) and 65% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 26% of games; Akhmat in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 70% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 65% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.47 xG and Akhmat 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Akhmat attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 37%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 45%, Akhmat 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akhmat's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.24 PPG, Akhmat 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.