FC Krasnodar 0-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion FK Krasnodar — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Akhmat have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 1 for Akhmat and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 62% and Akhmat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 57% | Akhmat 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.73 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.190 / defence 0.944 | Akhmat attack 0.924 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.241. Data: 56 FC Krasnodar games / 56 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Akhmat 4.35. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 60% | Akhmat 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.73 / Akhmat 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.190 / def 0.944 | Akhmat attack 0.924 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Akhmat xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 52% chance of winning, Akhmat a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 3 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (1.19) and Akhmat's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.92x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.01
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.81
1.08
Akhmat xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.08 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 27W 17D 12L from 56 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 23L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.41 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Krasnodar have managed 18W 5D 4L from 27 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 11W 4D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Akhmat in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 23W 10D 23L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Akhmat away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.19 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.37 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Akhmat in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
4
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, Akhmat have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Akhmat 0-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Akhmat?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 59%, Akhmat 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Krasnodar and 67% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Krasnodar's games and 67% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 67% of Akhmat's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Akhmat tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat FC Krasnodar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat FC Krasnodar 0-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.73 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Akhmat attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 23%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 57%, Akhmat 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.75 PPG, Akhmat 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.