Khimki 1-1 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 58%, yet in-form Khimki provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khimki vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host FC Rostov at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Rostov — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Khimki have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 0.91 xG and FC Rostov 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.958 / defence 1.241 | FC Rostov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.825 / away 1.681. Data: 2 Khimki games / 2 FC Rostov games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 58%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | FC Rostov 1.72. The model has a clear lean to FC Rostov (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Rostov as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khimki (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Khimki 0.91 / FC Rostov 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.958 / def 1.241 | FC Rostov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.825 / away 1.681 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Rostov xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs FC Rostov kick off?
Khimki vs FC Rostov kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Khimki 1 - 1 FC Rostov.
Where is Khimki vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs FC Rostov part of?
Khimki vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 19% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Khimki and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and FC Rostov in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. FC Rostov (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khimki's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
19%
5.25
23%
4.31
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.68
1.77
FC Rostov xG
5.25
19%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
3%
30.94
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Khimki and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Khimki and 1.77 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs FC Rostov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Khimki have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Khimki are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Rostov.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
Defensively: Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Khimki or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and FC Rostov runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khimki's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Khimki
2
Draws
4
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and FC Rostov?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 0, FC Rostov have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Khimki 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khimki's recent matches and 50% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khimki's recent games and 50% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 3, as Khimki and FC Rostov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 0.91 xG and FC Rostov 1.77 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against FC Rostov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 19% | Draw 23% | FC Rostov 58%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, FC Rostov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Rostov conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.