Fakel 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov plays host to Fakel versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Fakel, 1.50 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fakel 0W, CSKA Moscow 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 48% versus CSKA Moscow 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 39% | CSKA Moscow 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.42 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.905 / defence 0.848 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.134 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.099. Data: 44 Fakel games / 44 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 45% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 28%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 3.57. Fakel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fakel 30% | CSKA Moscow 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 45% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Fakel 1.42 / CSKA Moscow 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.905 / def 0.848 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.134 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Fakel (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.06
CSKA Moscow xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Fakel vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Fakel 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Fakel vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 45% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fakel and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
Record (2 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Fakel and CSKA Moscow in?
Fakel (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.91x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.13x) against Fakel's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.69
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.48
1.06
CSKA Moscow xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fakel and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fakel and 1.06 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Fakel have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 23W 13D 8L from 44 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fakel have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (8W 9D 5L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.86 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 23W 13D 8L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Fakel's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.50 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Fakel or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Fakel 0-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 50%, CSKA Moscow 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fakel) and 59% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fakel's games and 64% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fakel vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fakel's recent games and 59% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and CSKA Moscow finished level at 1-1 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.42 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 45% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 28%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 39%, CSKA Moscow 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.