Fakel 0-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fakel at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Fakel welcome Baltika to Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's home record at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fakel are significantly better at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.12 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fakel carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fakel have won 0, Baltika 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Baltika winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Baltika trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 38% versus Baltika 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 38% | Baltika 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.37 xG and Baltika 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.901 / defence 0.855 | Baltika attack 0.635 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.097. Data: 46 Fakel games / 16 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Baltika 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fakel (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Baltika's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fakel as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 30% | Baltika 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 34% | xG Fakel 1.37 / Baltika 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.901 / def 0.855 | Baltika attack 0.635 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Fakel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Baltika xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Baltika kick off?
Fakel vs Baltika kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel 0 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Fakel vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Baltika part of?
Fakel vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 55% chance of winning, Baltika a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Fakel and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Baltika?
Record (1 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 0 | Baltika 1W.
What form are Fakel and Baltika in?
Fakel (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Baltika (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.90x the league average against Baltika's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.38
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.97
0.60
Baltika xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
4%
25.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Fakel and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fakel and 0.60 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Baltika?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fakel's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 10L across 16 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fakel by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baltika's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fakel are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.75 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Baltika in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Baltika have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Baltika away?
Fakel's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.57 PPG; Baltika away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Fakel or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Baltika in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fakel and Baltika runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fakel
1
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Baltika?
From 2 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Baltika have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Fakel 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 29%, Baltika 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Fakel and 43% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 29% of games; Baltika in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Fakel's recent matches and 43% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Fakel's recent games and 43% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 17, as Fakel and Baltika drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.37 xG and Baltika 0.60 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Baltika attack 0.64 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 55% | Draw 30% | Baltika 15%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 38%, Baltika 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baltika's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fakel arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.