Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov meet at Anzhi Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 December 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 5W 2D 3L at Anzhi Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Dinamo Makhachkala. A 0.60 PPG lead over Krylia Sovetov (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Dinamo Makhachkala, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Krylia Sovetov — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with Dinamo Makhachkala winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dinamo Makhachkala and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 43% versus Krylia Sovetov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 32% | Krylia Sovetov 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.10 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.862 / defence 0.872 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.073 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.312. Data: 36 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 37 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% | Draw 33% | Krylia Sovetov 37%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Krylia Sovetov 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dinamo Makhachkala (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 40% | Krylia Sovetov 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% | Draw 33% | Krylia Sovetov 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.10 / Krylia Sovetov 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.862 / def 0.872 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.073 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Friday 4 December 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 30% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (5 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 4W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dinamo Makhachkala's attack rating (0.86) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.07x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
30%
3.28
33%
3.07
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.33
1.23
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.23 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record stands at 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 16L across 37 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.05 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dinamo Makhachkala have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 2W 5D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dinamo Makhachkala come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.22 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.53 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dinamo Makhachkala won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 4, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-4 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 32%, Krylia Sovetov 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 58% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 37% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 47% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.