CSKA Moscow 1-2 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at VEB Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at VEB Arena this season.
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Rostov's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 1.10 PPG lead over FC Rostov (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, CSKA Moscow have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with FC Rostov managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both CSKA Moscow and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 58% versus FC Rostov 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 53% | FC Rostov 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.981 / defence 0.816 | FC Rostov attack 0.883 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.258. Data: 45 CSKA Moscow games / 45 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | FC Rostov 5.26. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: CSKA Moscow 20% | FC Rostov 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.56 / FC Rostov 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.981 / def 0.816 | FC Rostov attack 0.883 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Rostov xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kicked off at 11:15 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 2 FC Rostov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 50% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
Record (7 meetings): CSKA Moscow 4W | Draws 3 | FC Rostov 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. FC Rostov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.88x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.16
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.47
0.91
FC Rostov xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.91 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 20W 15D 10L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 17L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.33 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 20W 15D 10L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or FC Rostov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.77 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
4
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, FC Rostov have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 50%, FC Rostov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (CSKA Moscow) and 54% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Rostov in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play FC Rostov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 54% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 54% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat CSKA Moscow 1-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against FC Rostov attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC Rostov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 53%, FC Rostov 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.67 PPG, FC Rostov 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.