Baltika 1-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Akhmat travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika in Premier League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 8 games, Baltika have gone 1W 1D 6L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 home games (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Akhmat have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Akhmat's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Baltika's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 62% versus Akhmat 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 62% | Akhmat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.99 xG and Akhmat 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.822 / defence 1.233 | Akhmat attack 0.979 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.203. Akhmat bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Baltika's projected output down. Baltika's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Akhmat's projected output up. Data: built from Baltika's last 8 games and Akhmat's last 38.
Result probabilities: Baltika 23% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 45%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 4.40 | Draw 3.09 | Akhmat 2.23. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baltika 67% (last 3 home games) | Akhmat 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 23% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Baltika 0.99 / Akhmat 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.822 / def 1.233 | Akhmat attack 0.979 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Akhmat xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Akhmat kick off?
Baltika vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Akhmat?
Baltika 1 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Baltika vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akhmat part of?
Baltika vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 23% chance of winning, Akhmat a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baltika and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.82x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 8 games and Akhmat's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
23%
4.40
32%
3.09
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.44
1.45
Akhmat xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
5%
18.78
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Baltika and 1.45 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Baltika have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Akhmat's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Akhmat are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baltika.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Akhmat have gone 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baltika are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Akhmat in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akhmat away?
Baltika's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.33 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Akhmat in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won Akhmat 1-7 Baltika.
Baltika's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Baltika
2
Draws
0
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akhmat?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 3, Akhmat have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Akhmat?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 67% BTTS, Akhmat 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Baltika and 0% for Akhmat.
On the defensive side: Akhmat in 67%; Baltika have failed to score in 33% of games; Akhmat in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Akhmat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 0% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Baltika's recent games and 0% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 67% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baltika defy the odds to beat Akhmat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Akhmat 1-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.99 xG and Akhmat 1.45 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Akhmat landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Akhmat attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 23% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 45%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Baltika win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 62%, Akhmat 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.