Arsenal Tula 1-1 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Stadion Arsenal to take on Arsenal Tula. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal Tula stand at 1W 0D 3L from 4 Premier League matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arsenal Tula have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Spartak Moscow are 0.75 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.75), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal Tula in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal Tula 75% versus Spartak Moscow 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal Tula 100% | Spartak Moscow 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 0.95 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.941 / defence 1.259 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.678 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.454. Data: 4 Arsenal Tula games / 4 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 28% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 43%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Spartak Moscow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal Tula 75% | Spartak Moscow 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 28% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Arsenal Tula 0.95 / Spartak Moscow 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.941 / def 1.259 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.678 / def 1.014 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Spartak Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow?
Arsenal Tula 1 - 1 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 28% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arsenal Tula's attack at 0.94x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Arsenal Tula's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.48
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.19
1.24
Spartak Moscow xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.24 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal Tula's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arsenal Tula heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Spartak Moscow in 25%.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Arsenal Tula or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal Tula have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arsenal Tula
1
Draws
1
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 0, Spartak Moscow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Spartak Moscow 3-0 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal Tula 75%, Spartak Moscow 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Arsenal Tula and 25% for Spartak Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Arsenal Tula's recent matches and 25% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 25% of Spartak Moscow's.
Do Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 5, as Arsenal Tula and Spartak Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 0.95 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.24 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 28% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 43%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 100%, Spartak Moscow 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal Tula conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.