Vizela 3-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Maritimo meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's home record at Estádio Do Vizela: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Maritimo (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 55% versus Maritimo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | Maritimo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.45 xG and Maritimo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.926 / defence 0.931 | Maritimo attack 0.865 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.006. Data: 49 Vizela games / 49 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 52% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 21%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Maritimo 4.76. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vizela are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 30% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 52% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Vizela 1.45 / Maritimo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.926 / def 0.931 | Maritimo attack 0.865 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Vizela (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Maritimo xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Maritimo kick off?
Vizela vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Maritimo?
Vizela 3 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Vizela vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Maritimo part of?
Vizela vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 52% chance of winning, Maritimo a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vizela and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Vizela and Maritimo in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.93x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.86x) against Vizela's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.73
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.26
0.81
Maritimo xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
5%
20.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vizela and 0.81 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela's recent record stands at 12W 15D 22L from 49 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 23L across 49 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Vizela against 0.98 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 6W 8D 10L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 5W 7D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 12W 15D 22L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 11W 15D 23L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Maritimo away?
Vizela's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.08 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 3-0 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vizela
1
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Maritimo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Maritimo 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 46%, Maritimo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Vizela) and 50% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vizela's recent matches and 58% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vizela's recent games and 50% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Maritimo tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vizela run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Maritimo 3-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.45 xG and Maritimo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Maritimo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Maritimo attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 52% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 21%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Maritimo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Maritimo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.04 PPG, Maritimo 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.