Vizela 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vizela host Benfica at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vizela — All Games: 1W 5D 2L from 8 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vizela are significantly better at Estádio Do Vizela than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 0D 1L from 8 outings — 2.62 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.38 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.62 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.62 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Vizela trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Benfica trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 62% versus Benfica 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 50% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.84 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.915 / defence 1.117 | Benfica attack 1.352 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 1.220. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Vizela games / 8 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 58%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 100% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Vizela 0.84 / Benfica 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.915 / def 1.117 | Benfica attack 1.352 / def 0.949 | league avg home 0.971 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Benfica (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Benfica kick off?
Vizela vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Benfica?
Vizela 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Vizela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Benfica part of?
Vizela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 14% chance of winning, Benfica a 58% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vizela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Benfica in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 7W-0D-1L in 8 | 2.62 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 0.62 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.92x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
14%
7.39
29%
3.49
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.69
1.84
Benfica xG
7.39
14%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
2%
46.68
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vizela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Vizela and 1.84 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 5D 2L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 7W 0D 1L from 8 games, 2.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vizela.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Vizela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Benfica have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.38 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 1W 5D 2L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 7W 0D 1L in their last 8 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.50 PPG; Benfica away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Vizela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Benfica in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Feb 2024, when Benfica won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vizela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
1
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Benfica have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vizela at 100%, Benfica at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Vizela) and 75% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Vizela's games and 50% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vizela's recent games and 75% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Benfica tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benfica in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.84 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Benfica attack 1.35 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 14% | Draw 29% | Benfica 58%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 50%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.