Tondela 4-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Tondela take on Maritimo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio João Cardoso plays host to Tondela versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tondela have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's home record at Estádio João Cardoso: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Maritimo (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tondela have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Maritimo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Tondela — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Maritimo — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tondela 60% and Maritimo 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tondela 80% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.29 xG and Maritimo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 1.090 / defence 1.424 | Maritimo attack 0.730 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.180. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Tondela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Tondela games / 10 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 34% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 31%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Maritimo 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 60% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 34% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Tondela 1.29 / Maritimo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 1.090 / def 1.424 | Maritimo attack 0.730 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Maritimo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Maritimo kick off?
Tondela vs Maritimo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Maritimo?
Tondela 4 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Tondela vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Maritimo part of?
Tondela vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 34% chance of winning, Maritimo a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tondela and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tondela and Maritimo in?
Tondela (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tondela's attack at 1.09x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.73x) against Tondela's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.90
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Maritimo xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Tondela and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Tondela and 1.23 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Tondela have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 3W 0D 7L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games, 0.70 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Tondela against 0.70 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tondela have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Tondela are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Maritimo in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Maritimo away?
Tondela's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 1.20 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Tondela
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Maritimo?
From 2 meetings on record, Tondela have won 2, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Maritimo 1-3 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Maritimo?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 60%, Maritimo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Tondela and 60% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Maritimo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tondela's games and 60% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tondela vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Tondela's matches and 60% of Maritimo's.
Do Tondela and Maritimo tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Maritimo 4-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.29 xG and Maritimo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 1.09 / defence 1.42 against Maritimo attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 34% | Draw 35% | Maritimo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Tondela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 80%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tondela 0.90 PPG, Maritimo 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.