Tondela 1-2 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tondela vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio João Cardoso plays host to Tondela versus Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 13 September 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Tondela (all games): 1W 0D 3L across 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Tondela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Estoril are the stronger side — 1.75 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.75). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Tondela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 50% versus Estoril 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tondela 100% | Estoril 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.04 xG and Estoril 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 1.030 / defence 1.264 | Estoril attack 1.169 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.131. Data: 4 Tondela games / 4 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 20% | Draw 31% | Estoril 49%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Estoril 2.04. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tondela 50% | Estoril 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 20% | Draw 31% | Estoril 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Tondela 1.04 / Estoril 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 1.030 / def 1.264 | Estoril attack 1.169 / def 1.037 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Estoril (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Estoril xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Estoril kick off?
Tondela vs Estoril kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Estoril?
Tondela 1 - 2 Estoril.
Where is Tondela vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Estoril part of?
Tondela vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 20% chance of winning, Estoril a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tondela and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tondela and Estoril in?
Tondela (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tondela's attack rating (1.03) and Estoril's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (1.17x) against Tondela's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
20%
4.97
31%
3.20
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.71
1.67
Estoril xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
26.43
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tondela and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Tondela and 1.67 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Tondela have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Tondela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estoril are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
Attack vs Defence
Tondela are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Estoril in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Estoril in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Estoril have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Tondela or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tondela have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Estoril in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tondela have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Tondela
2
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, Estoril have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Estoril 2-2 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 50%, Estoril 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Tondela and 50% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Tondela's recent matches and 50% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tondela vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Tondela's matches and 50% of Estoril's.
Do Tondela and Estoril tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Estoril in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Tondela 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Tondela 1-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.04 xG and Estoril 1.67 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Estoril attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 20% | Draw 31% | Estoril 49%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 100%, Estoril 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.