Tondela 1-1 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tondela at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs Belenenses fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Tondela welcome Belenenses to Estádio João Cardoso. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 March 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Tondela have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Estádio João Cardoso this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Belenenses — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Tondela) versus 0.70 (Belenenses). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Tondela, 0 for Belenenses and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Tondela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tondela in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Belenenses in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 62% versus Belenenses 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 71% | Belenenses 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.41 xG and Belenenses 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.907 / defence 1.443 | Belenenses attack 0.504 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.324. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Tondela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Tondela games / 24 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 45% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 23%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Belenenses 4.35. Tondela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tondela are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tondela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Tondela 70% | Belenenses 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 45% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Tondela 1.41 / Belenenses 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.907 / def 1.443 | Belenenses attack 0.504 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Tondela (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Belenenses xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Belenenses kick off?
Tondela vs Belenenses kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Belenenses?
Tondela 1 - 1 Belenenses.
Where is Tondela vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Belenenses part of?
Tondela vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 45% chance of winning, Belenenses a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Tondela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Tondela and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Tondela 1W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are Tondela and Belenenses in?
Tondela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tondela's attack at 0.91x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Tondela's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tondela Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.16
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Belenenses xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Tondela and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tondela and 0.96 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Tondela have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 6W 2D 16L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses's form line: 3W 6D 15L from 24 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tondela on 0.83 PPG, Belenenses on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tondela have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (4W 0D 8L).
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 4D 8L from 12 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tondela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tondela are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.58 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 6W 2D 16L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 3W 6D 15L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Belenenses away?
Tondela's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 1.00 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Tondela
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Tondela have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2022, when Tondela 1-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Belenenses?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 58%, Belenenses 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Tondela) and 17% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Tondela have failed to score in 33% of games; Belenenses in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Tondela's recent matches and 25% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tondela vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Tondela's recent games and 17% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tondela and Belenenses tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela and Belenenses share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela and Belenenses finished level at 1-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.41 xG and Belenenses 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.91 / defence 1.44 against Belenenses attack 0.50 / defence 1.47, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 45% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 23%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 71%, Belenenses 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Belenenses's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tondela 0.83 PPG, Belenenses 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.