Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sporting CP (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sporting CP face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio José Alvalade to face Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 16 January 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Sporting CP (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estádio José Alvalade this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Casa Pia's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Sporting CP's favour (2.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Sporting CP are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Sporting CP winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sporting CP and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 51% versus Casa Pia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 67% | Casa Pia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.97 xG and Casa Pia 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.655 / defence 0.605 | Casa Pia attack 0.915 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.268. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.655 — their λ of 2.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Sporting CP's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.605 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Sporting CP games / 51 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 83% | Draw 11% | Casa Pia 6%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Casa Pia 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 30% | Casa Pia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 83% | Draw 11% | Casa Pia 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 48% | xG Sporting CP 2.97 / Casa Pia 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.655 / def 0.605 | Casa Pia attack 0.915 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Casa Pia xG
48%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kick off?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Sporting CP 3 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia part of?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 83% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sporting CP and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
Record (7 meetings): Sporting CP 7W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Sporting CP and Casa Pia in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.66x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.92x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 4-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.81
6%
16.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
4 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.67
0.70
Casa Pia xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.81
11%
Draw
16.95
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
5%
19.47
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.70 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 38W 10D 3L from 51 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 22L across 51 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 20W 3D 2L from 25 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 7W 6D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sporting CP are averaging 2.65 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.10 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 38W 10D 3L in their last 51 games (2.43 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Casa Pia away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.52 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sporting CP have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 8-0 on 29 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Sporting CP
0
Draws
0
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 8, Casa Pia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 48%, Casa Pia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sporting CP) and 52% (Casa Pia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Casa Pia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 52% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sporting CP's matches and 52% of Casa Pia's.
Do Sporting CP and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 3-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.97 xG and Casa Pia 0.70 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.66 / defence 0.60 against Casa Pia attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 83% | Draw 11% | Casa Pia 6%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.