Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sporting CP vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sporting CP — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Alvalade, Sporting CP have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.80 PPG (Sporting CP) versus 2.50 (Benfica). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sporting CP, 2 for Benfica and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 53% versus Benfica 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sporting CP 73% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.80 xG and Benfica 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.964 / defence 0.826 | Benfica attack 1.201 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.223. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.964 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Sporting CP games / 61 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 70% | Draw 16% | Benfica 14%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.43 | Draw 6.25 | Benfica 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sporting CP 60% | Benfica 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 70% | Draw 16% | Benfica 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 66% | xG Sporting CP 2.80 / Benfica 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.964 / def 0.826 | Benfica attack 1.201 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Benfica xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Benfica kick off?
Sporting CP vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP 2 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Sporting CP vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Benfica part of?
Sporting CP vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 70% chance of winning, Benfica a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sporting CP and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
Record (5 meetings): Sporting CP 1W | Draws 2 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.96x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
70%
1.42
16%
6.34
14%
7.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
4.02
1.21
Benfica xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
7.22
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
6%
16.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
1%
119.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.21 for Benfica, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 45W 7D 8L from 60 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 48W 7D 5L across 60 games — 2.52 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sporting CP on 2.37 PPG, Benfica on 2.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 26W 2D 2L from 30 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 22W 4D 4L across 30 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.32 scored and 0.68 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Benfica in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 45W 7D 8L in their last 60 games (2.37 PPG), while Benfica have gone 48W 7D 5L in their last 60 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Benfica away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.67 PPG; Benfica away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Benfica in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
4
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 3, Benfica have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 50%, Benfica 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sporting CP and 53% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Benfica in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 30% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sporting CP's matches and 53% of Benfica's.
Do Sporting CP and Benfica tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Benfica in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Benfica 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Benfica 2-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.80 xG and Benfica 1.21 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sporting CP fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.96 / defence 0.83 against Benfica attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 70% | Draw 16% | Benfica 14%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 73%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.37 PPG, Benfica 2.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.