SC Braga 2-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Braga host Pacos Ferreira at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Braga — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Braga have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estádio Municipal de Braga — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 0, Pacos Ferreira 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 48% versus Pacos Ferreira 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 52% | Pacos Ferreira 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.16 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.105 / defence 0.914 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.467 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.413. Data: 21 SC Braga games / 21 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 48% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 17%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 2.08 | Draw 2.86 | Pacos Ferreira 5.88. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Pacos Ferreira's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 40% | Pacos Ferreira 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 48% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG SC Braga 1.16 / Pacos Ferreira 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.105 / def 0.914 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.467 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Pacos Ferreira xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira?
SC Braga 2 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 48% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 17% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): SC Braga 0W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira in?
SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.10x the league average against Pacos Ferreira's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
48%
2.10
35%
2.85
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SC Braga xG
Total xG
1.77
0.60
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.10
48%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.60 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga's recent record stands at 11W 5D 5L from 21 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 8L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacos Ferreira heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacos Ferreira's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 games (1.81 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
SC Braga's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.10 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Braga go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when SC Braga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Pacos Ferreira specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Braga
1
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 3, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when SC Braga 3-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SC Braga 40% BTTS, Pacos Ferreira 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for SC Braga and 20% for Pacos Ferreira.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 40%; Pacos Ferreira in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of SC Braga's recent matches and 30% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SC Braga's recent games and 20% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Pacos Ferreira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Pacos Ferreira 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.16 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.60 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.47 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 48% | Draw 35% | Pacos Ferreira 17%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 52%, Pacos Ferreira 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.