SC Braga 0-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Braga at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Braga vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as SC Braga welcome Casa Pia to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Braga this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SC Braga are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
SC Braga in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SC Braga 27% | Casa Pia 27%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 54% | Casa Pia 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.71 xG and Casa Pia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.126 / defence 0.891 | Casa Pia attack 1.038 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.045. Data: 45 SC Braga games / 11 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 55% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 21%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Casa Pia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: SC Braga 20% | Casa Pia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 55% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Braga 1.71 / Casa Pia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.126 / def 0.891 | Casa Pia attack 1.038 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Casa Pia xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Casa Pia kick off?
SC Braga vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Casa Pia?
SC Braga 0 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is SC Braga vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Casa Pia part of?
SC Braga vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 55% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Braga and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Casa Pia in?
SC Braga (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.13x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.17
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.67
0.96
Casa Pia xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.96 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Braga's recent record stands at 8W 1D 2L from 11 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 3L across 11 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Braga are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.73 conceded. SC Braga's scoring rate against Casa Pia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Casa Pia in 27%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games; Casa Pia in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 games (2.27 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Casa Pia away?
SC Braga's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.00 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SC Braga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when SC Braga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SC Braga
0
Draws
3
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 5, Casa Pia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Casa Pia?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 20%, Casa Pia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SC Braga) and 60% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Casa Pia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SC Braga's recent matches and 60% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SC Braga's recent games and 60% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Casa Pia tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat SC Braga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.71 xG and Casa Pia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against Casa Pia attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 55% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 21%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Casa Pia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 54%, Casa Pia 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.82. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.