Santa Clara 2-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Santa Clara welcome Maritimo to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Santa Clara 1.20 PPG, Maritimo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Santa Clara register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Santa Clara, 1 for Maritimo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Maritimo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Maritimo in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 57% versus Maritimo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 57% | Maritimo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.35 xG and Maritimo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.016 / defence 1.092 | Maritimo attack 0.825 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.179. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Santa Clara games / 30 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 29%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Maritimo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Santa Clara 60% | Maritimo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Santa Clara 1.35 / Maritimo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.016 / def 1.092 | Maritimo attack 0.825 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Maritimo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Maritimo kick off?
Santa Clara vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Santa Clara 2 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Santa Clara vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Maritimo part of?
Santa Clara vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 43% chance of winning, Maritimo a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santa Clara and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Maritimo in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (1.02) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.48
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.42
1.06
Maritimo xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.06 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.17 PPG, Maritimo on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 7W 5D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Maritimo away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.73 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Maritimo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Maritimo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Maritimo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 53%, Maritimo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Santa Clara) and 53% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Santa Clara's games and 60% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Santa Clara's recent games and 53% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Maritimo tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara and Maritimo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 31, as Santa Clara and Maritimo drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.35 xG and Maritimo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Maritimo outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Maritimo attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 29%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 57%, Maritimo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.17 PPG, Maritimo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.