Santa Clara 0-5 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Santa Clara take on Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Santa Clara (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica have collected 3.00 PPG across 4 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Benfica — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 25% versus Benfica 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 50% | Benfica 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.04 xG and Benfica 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.046 / defence 1.148 | Benfica attack 1.052 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 0.974. Data: 4 Santa Clara games / 4 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 28% | Draw 37% | Benfica 35%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Benfica 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 25% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 28% | Draw 37% | Benfica 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Santa Clara 1.04 / Benfica 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.046 / def 1.148 | Benfica attack 1.052 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.022 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Benfica xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Benfica kick off?
Santa Clara vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Santa Clara 0 - 5 Benfica.
Where is Santa Clara vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Benfica part of?
Santa Clara vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 28% chance of winning, Benfica a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santa Clara and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.05x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
37%
2.71
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.22
1.18
Benfica xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.18 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santa Clara come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santa Clara are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Benfica in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Santa Clara or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benfica in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-5 on 11 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santa Clara have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Santa Clara
1
Draws
7
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 0, Benfica have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 25%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Santa Clara) and 50% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 50%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Benfica tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benfica in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Santa Clara 0-5 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.04 xG and Benfica 1.18 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.18 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 28% | Draw 37% | Benfica 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 50%, Benfica 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.