Portimonense 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Braga at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Portimonense welcome SC Braga to Estádio Municipal de Portimão. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Portimonense have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense's home record at Estádio Municipal de Portimão: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Portimonense have won 0, SC Braga 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Portimonense trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 37% versus SC Braga 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 35% | SC Braga 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 0.92 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.820 / defence 0.960 | SC Braga attack 1.469 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.083. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Portimonense games / 46 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 23% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 52%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | SC Braga 1.92. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 40% | SC Braga 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 23% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Portimonense 0.92 / SC Braga 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.820 / def 0.960 | SC Braga attack 1.469 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SC Braga xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs SC Braga kick off?
Portimonense vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs SC Braga?
Portimonense 1 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Portimonense vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs SC Braga part of?
Portimonense vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 23% chance of winning, SC Braga a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Portimonense and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and SC Braga?
Record (2 meetings): Portimonense 0W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Portimonense and SC Braga in?
Portimonense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.82x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
23%
4.41
26%
3.87
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.44
1.53
SC Braga xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
20.29
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Portimonense and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.53 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portimonense come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 9D 21L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.96 PPG from 46 outings (27W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Portimonense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Portimonense's home form reads 7W 5D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.00 points per game from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portimonense are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.72 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.13 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Portimonense or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Braga in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portimonense and SC Braga runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Braga have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when SC Braga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portimonense's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Portimonense
0
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and SC Braga?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 0, SC Braga have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Portimonense 3-5 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 48%, SC Braga 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Portimonense) and 48% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 52%; Portimonense have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Portimonense's recent matches and 44% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Portimonense's recent games and 48% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and SC Braga tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Portimonense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Portimonense 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 0.92 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.82 / defence 0.96 against SC Braga attack 1.47 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 23% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 52%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 35%, SC Braga 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Portimonense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.