Portimonense 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Portimonense are significantly better at Estádio Municipal de Portimão than their overall form suggests.
Maritimo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Portimonense, 1.10 for Maritimo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Portimonense lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Portimonense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 37% versus Maritimo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 37% | Maritimo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.38 xG and Maritimo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.768 / defence 0.987 | Maritimo attack 0.843 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 0.970. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Portimonense games / 54 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 50% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 22%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Maritimo 4.55. Portimonense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 40% | Maritimo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 50% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Portimonense 1.38 / Maritimo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.768 / def 0.987 | Maritimo attack 0.843 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.372 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Maritimo xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Maritimo kick off?
Portimonense vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Portimonense 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Portimonense vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Maritimo part of?
Portimonense vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 50% chance of winning, Maritimo a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Portimonense and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Maritimo?
Record (3 meetings): Portimonense 2W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Portimonense and Maritimo in?
Portimonense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.77x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.84x) against Portimonense's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.61
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.19
0.81
Maritimo xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.81 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense's recent record stands at 17W 10D 27L from 54 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 27L across 54 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Portimonense against 0.94 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 8W 6D 13L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.96 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 17W 10D 27L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 12W 15D 27L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Maritimo away?
Portimonense's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.11 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portimonense
0
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Maritimo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Portimonense 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Maritimo?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 48%, Maritimo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Portimonense) and 56% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 30% of games; Maritimo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Portimonense's recent matches and 59% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Portimonense's recent games and 56% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Maritimo tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.38 xG and Maritimo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Maritimo attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 50% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 22%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 37%, Maritimo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.13 PPG, Maritimo 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.