Portimonense 1-2 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portimonense have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Casa Pia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia away from home this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Casa Pia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Portimonense — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Portimonense 31% | Casa Pia 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Portimonense 38% | Casa Pia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.14 xG and Casa Pia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.852 / defence 0.994 | Casa Pia attack 0.984 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.119. Data: 47 Portimonense games / 13 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 37% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 34%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Casa Pia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portimonense are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Casa Pia (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 40% | Casa Pia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 37% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Portimonense 1.14 / Casa Pia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.852 / def 0.994 | Casa Pia attack 0.984 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Casa Pia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Casa Pia kick off?
Portimonense vs Casa Pia kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Portimonense 1 - 2 Casa Pia.
Where is Portimonense vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Casa Pia part of?
Portimonense vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 37% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Portimonense and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Casa Pia in?
Portimonense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.98x) against Portimonense's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.46
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.23
1.09
Casa Pia xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.09 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portimonense come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 1D 6L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Casa Pia sit at 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Portimonense against 1.77 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Portimonense's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Casa Pia have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portimonense are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 6W 1D 6L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.67 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Portimonense
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 0, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Portimonense 2-2 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 50%, Casa Pia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Portimonense) and 50% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Portimonense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Casa Pia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Portimonense's recent matches and 50% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Portimonense's recent games and 50% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Casa Pia defy the odds to beat Portimonense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Portimonense 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.14 xG and Casa Pia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Casa Pia outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Casa Pia attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 37% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 34%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 38%, Casa Pia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.46 PPG, Casa Pia 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.