Portimonense 1-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Portimonense and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Portimonense (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Boavista have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Portimonense against 0.90 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Portimonense, 0 for Boavista and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Portimonense — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Boavista — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 38% versus Boavista 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 38% | Boavista 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.08 xG and Boavista 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.712 / defence 1.216 | Boavista attack 0.696 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.418. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Portimonense games / 21 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 31% | Draw 32% | Boavista 37%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Boavista 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Portimonense 50% | Boavista 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 31% | Draw 32% | Boavista 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Portimonense 1.08 / Boavista 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.712 / def 1.216 | Boavista attack 0.696 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Boavista (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Boavista xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Boavista kick off?
Portimonense vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Boavista?
Portimonense 1 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Portimonense vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Boavista part of?
Portimonense vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 31% chance of winning, Boavista a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Portimonense and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Portimonense 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Portimonense and Boavista in?
Portimonense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Boavista (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Portimonense's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.70x) against Portimonense's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
31%
3.24
32%
3.08
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Boavista xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.20 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Portimonense have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 5D 9L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 3W 11D 7L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Portimonense against 0.95 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Portimonense have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Boavista's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Boavista in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Boavista have gone 3W 11D 7L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Boavista away?
Portimonense's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 0.90 PPG; Boavista away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Boavista in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 1-4 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Portimonense
2
Draws
3
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 1, Boavista have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Boavista 1-4 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Portimonense, 80% for Boavista — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Portimonense) and 60% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Portimonense's games and 80% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portimonense vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Portimonense's recent games and 60% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Boavista tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Boavista in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portimonense and Boavista share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 22, as Portimonense and Boavista drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.08 xG and Boavista 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Boavista attack 0.70 / defence 1.39, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 31% | Draw 32% | Boavista 37%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 38%, Boavista 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.24 PPG, Boavista 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.