Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's home record at Estádio da Capital do Móvel: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Sporting CP (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 3W 1D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sporting CP are 1.50 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 50% versus Sporting CP 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 40% | Sporting CP 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG and Sporting CP 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.848 / defence 1.074 | Sporting CP attack 0.954 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.207. Data: 10 Pacos Ferreira games / 10 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 22% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 41%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Sporting CP 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 40% | Sporting CP 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 22% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.86 / Sporting CP 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.848 / def 1.074 | Sporting CP attack 0.954 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sporting CP xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 22% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (0.95x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
22%
4.56
37%
2.70
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.10
1.24
Sporting CP xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.24 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pacos Ferreira's recent record stands at 2W 5D 3L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 0L across 10 games — 2.60 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacos Ferreira heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pacos Ferreira have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.50 scored and 0.40 conceded.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Sporting CP in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.75 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-4 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
4
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Sporting CP have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 0-4 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sporting CP see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 50%, Sporting CP 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pacos Ferreira) and 50% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 75% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 50% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Pacos Ferreira 0-2 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG and Sporting CP 1.24 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Sporting CP attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 22% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 41%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 40%, Sporting CP 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.