Pacos Ferreira 1-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Portimonense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Portimonense have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.78 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Pacos Ferreira, 1.10 for Portimonense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 1W, Portimonense 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Pacos Ferreira winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 40% versus Portimonense 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 30% | Portimonense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.89 xG and Portimonense 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.775 / defence 1.089 | Portimonense attack 0.824 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.424. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Pacos Ferreira games / 20 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 44%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Portimonense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Portimonense 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.89 / Portimonense 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.775 / def 1.089 | Portimonense attack 0.824 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Portimonense xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 24% chance of winning, Portimonense a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Portimonense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.78) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.82x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
24%
4.12
32%
3.11
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.17
1.28
Portimonense xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.28 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 8D 8L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense's form line: 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.25 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
On the road, Portimonense have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Portimonense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.78 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Portimonense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 15 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Portimonense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Portimonense 1-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 56%, Portimonense 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacos Ferreira) and 44% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 56%; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 22% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 44% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 21, as Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.89 xG and Portimonense 1.28 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Portimonense attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 44%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 30%, Portimonense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 1.00 PPG, Portimonense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.