Pacos Ferreira 0-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 28 October 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pacos Ferreira have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estádio da Capital do Móvel — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Pacos Ferreira are significantly better at Estádio da Capital do Móvel than their overall form suggests.
Maritimo have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.20 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 0.20 for Maritimo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 1W, Maritimo 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Pacos Ferreira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Maritimo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 36% | Maritimo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.57 xG and Maritimo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.777 / defence 1.390 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.101. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Pacos Ferreira games / 44 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 44% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 32%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Maritimo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacos Ferreira are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 44% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.57 / Maritimo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.777 / def 1.390 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Maritimo xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 44% chance of winning, Maritimo a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Maritimo (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.78x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.85x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.05
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.87
1.30
Maritimo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.30 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 13D 22L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 9W 13D 22L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 0.91 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.05 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Maritimo away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Maritimo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
3
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Maritimo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 54%, Maritimo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacos Ferreira) and 59% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 64% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 59% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Pacos Ferreira 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Pacos Ferreira 0-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.57 xG and Maritimo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.78 / defence 1.39 against Maritimo attack 0.85 / defence 1.49, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 44% | Draw 25% | Maritimo 32%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 36%, Maritimo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Maritimo's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.91 PPG, Maritimo 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.