Moreirense 1-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Moreirense at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Moreirense welcome Vizela to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vizela have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Moreirense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Moreirense, 0 for Vizela and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Vizela in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 29% versus Vizela 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 36% | Vizela 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.42 xG and Vizela 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.729 / defence 0.975 | Vizela attack 0.841 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.292. Moreirense's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Moreirense games / 65 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 45% | Draw 27% | Vizela 28%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Vizela 3.57. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Moreirense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 30% | Vizela 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 45% | Draw 27% | Vizela 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Moreirense 1.42 / Vizela 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.729 / def 0.975 | Vizela attack 0.841 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Vizela xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Vizela kick off?
Moreirense vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Vizela?
Moreirense 1 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Moreirense vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Vizela part of?
Moreirense vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 45% chance of winning, Vizela a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Moreirense and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Vizela?
Record (3 meetings): Moreirense 2W | Draws 1 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Moreirense and Vizela in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.73x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.76
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.48
1.06
Vizela xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.06 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Moreirense have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 13W 7D 11L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Vizela's form line: 4W 10D 17L from 31 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vizela.
Venue Form
On home soil, Moreirense have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Vizela have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.97 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Current Season
Vizela
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Vizela in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 13W 7D 11L in their last 31 games (1.48 PPG), while Vizela have gone 4W 10D 17L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Vizela away?
Moreirense's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.47 PPG; Vizela away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vizela in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Moreirense won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Moreirense
1
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, Vizela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Moreirense 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Vizela?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 40%, Vizela 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Moreirense) and 53% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Moreirense have failed to score in 27% of games; Vizela in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Moreirense's recent matches and 60% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Moreirense's recent games and 53% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Vizela tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vizela in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Vizela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Vizela 1-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.42 xG and Vizela 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vizela landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against Vizela attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 45% | Draw 27% | Vizela 28%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 36%, Vizela 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vizela's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.