Moreirense 0-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Portimonense at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Portimonense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Portimonense have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense's away record: 4W 1D 1L from 6 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.17 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Portimonense are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Portimonense in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 75% versus Portimonense 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 67% | Portimonense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.12 xG and Portimonense 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.053 / defence 1.304 | Portimonense attack 0.922 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.331. Data: 12 Moreirense games / 13 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 45%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Portimonense 2.22. Portimonense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portimonense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portimonense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 100% | Portimonense 17% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Moreirense 1.12 / Portimonense 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.053 / def 1.304 | Portimonense attack 0.922 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Portimonense xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Portimonense kick off?
Moreirense vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Moreirense 0 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Moreirense vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Portimonense part of?
Moreirense vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 23% chance of winning, Portimonense a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Moreirense and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Portimonense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and Portimonense in?
Moreirense (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Portimonense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Portimonense's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
23%
4.31
32%
3.13
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.73
1.60
Portimonense xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.60 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Moreirense's recent record stands at 1W 6D 5L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 5L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portimonense by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Moreirense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Moreirense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Portimonense's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.42 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Moreirense are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Portimonense in 17%.
Defensively: Portimonense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.20 PPG; Portimonense away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Portimonense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Moreirense and Portimonense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Moreirense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Moreirense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Moreirense
0
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 2, Portimonense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Portimonense 0-2 Moreirense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 100%, Portimonense 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Moreirense and 60% for Portimonense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Portimonense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Moreirense's games and 20% of Portimonense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Moreirense's matches and 60% of Portimonense's.
Do Moreirense and Portimonense tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Moreirense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.12 xG and Portimonense 1.60 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against Portimonense attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 23% | Draw 32% | Portimonense 45%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 67%, Portimonense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portimonense's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.