Moreirense 1-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Estoril at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estoril have posted 5W 2D 1L from 8 away outings — 2.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.12 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Estoril's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Moreirense's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Estoril in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Moreirense 64% and Estoril 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 57% | Estoril 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.09 xG and Estoril 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.984 / defence 1.215 | Estoril attack 0.783 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.364. Data: 14 Moreirense games / 15 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 30% | Draw 30% | Estoril 40%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Moreirense 86% | Estoril 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 30% | Draw 30% | Estoril 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Moreirense 1.09 / Estoril 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.984 / def 1.215 | Estoril attack 0.783 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Estoril (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Estoril xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Estoril kick off?
Moreirense vs Estoril kicked off at 21:00 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Estoril?
Moreirense 1 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Moreirense vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Estoril part of?
Moreirense vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 30% chance of winning, Estoril a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Moreirense and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and Estoril in?
Moreirense (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.98x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.33
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.39
1.30
Estoril xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.30 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Moreirense have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 6D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 5W 7D 2L from 14 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Estoril are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Moreirense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Moreirense have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Estoril travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.36 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Estoril in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Estoril in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 1W 6D 7L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while Estoril have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 0.86 PPG; Estoril away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Moreirense's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Moreirense
3
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 4, Estoril have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Moreirense 1-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Estoril?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Moreirense at 86%, Estoril at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Moreirense) and 29% (Estoril).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Moreirense's games and 57% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Moreirense's recent games and 29% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Estoril tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Estoril in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Estoril 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Estoril 1-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.09 xG and Estoril 1.30 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estoril landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Estoril attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 30% | Draw 30% | Estoril 40%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 57%, Estoril 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Moreirense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.