Moreirense 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Moreirense take on Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.01 xG and Benfica 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Benfica attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Moreirense games / 0 Benfica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Moreirense 31% | Draw 39% | Benfica 30%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Benfica 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 31% | Draw 39% | Benfica 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Moreirense 1.01 / Benfica 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Benfica attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Benfica xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Benfica kick off?
Moreirense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Moreirense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Benfica part of?
Moreirense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 31% chance of winning, Benfica a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Moreirense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (0.85x) against Moreirense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
39%
2.56
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Moreirense xG
Total xG
1.99
0.98
Benfica xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.98 for Benfica, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Pre-Season
Benfica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Moreirense
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Benfica defy the odds to beat Moreirense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Moreirense 1-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.01 xG and Benfica 0.98 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Benfica attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 31% | Draw 39% | Benfica 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.