Maritimo 0-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Braga at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host SC Braga at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.91 xG and SC Braga 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SC Braga attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.929 / away 1.345. Data: 0 Maritimo games / 0 SC Braga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 42%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | SC Braga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Maritimo 0.91 / SC Braga 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SC Braga attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.929 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.31
SC Braga xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs SC Braga kick off?
Maritimo vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Maritimo 0 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Maritimo vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs SC Braga part of?
Maritimo vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 22% chance of winning, SC Braga a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Maritimo and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and SC Braga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and SC Braga in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.85) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
22%
4.56
36%
2.78
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.22
1.31
SC Braga xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Maritimo and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.31 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Pre-Season
SC Braga
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
0
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and SC Braga?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, SC Braga have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Maritimo 0-2 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.91 xG and SC Braga 1.31 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Maritimo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SC Braga attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 22% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 42%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.