Maritimo 0-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portimonense make the trip to Estádio dos Barreiros to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio dos Barreiros, Maritimo have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Portimonense have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Portimonense's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Maritimo, 0.70 for Portimonense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Maritimo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Maritimo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 54% versus Portimonense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Maritimo 42% | Portimonense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.49 xG and Portimonense 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.886 / defence 1.025 | Portimonense attack 0.584 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.162. Portimonense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Maritimo games / 33 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 55% | Draw 28% | Portimonense 16%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Portimonense 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Maritimo (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Portimonense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 55% | Draw 28% | Portimonense 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Maritimo 1.49 / Portimonense 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.886 / def 1.025 | Portimonense attack 0.584 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Portimonense xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Portimonense kick off?
Maritimo vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Portimonense?
Maritimo 0 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Maritimo vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Portimonense part of?
Maritimo vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 55% chance of winning, Portimonense a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Maritimo and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Maritimo and Portimonense in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Portimonense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.89x the league average against Portimonense's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.58x) against Maritimo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.55
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.18
0.70
Portimonense xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
4%
26.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.70 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Portimonense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 16L across 33 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Maritimo against 1.06 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Current Season
Portimonense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.12 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portimonense have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
0
Draws
3
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Portimonense have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Portimonense 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 44%, Portimonense 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Maritimo and 31% for Portimonense.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Portimonense in 31%; Maritimo have failed to score in 38% of games; Portimonense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Maritimo's recent matches and 31% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Maritimo's recent games and 31% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Portimonense tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portimonense defy the odds to beat Maritimo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Maritimo 0-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.49 xG and Portimonense 0.70 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Maritimo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Portimonense attack 0.58 / defence 1.55, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 55% | Draw 28% | Portimonense 16%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Portimonense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 42%, Portimonense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portimonense's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.15 PPG, Portimonense 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.