Maritimo 0-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio dos Barreiros, Maritimo have gone 3W 4D 2L this season (9 games, 1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estoril (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Maritimo. A 1.00 PPG lead over Estoril (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Maritimo 0W, Estoril 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 65% and Estoril 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 50% | Estoril 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.41 xG and Estoril 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 1.109 / defence 0.991 | Estoril attack 0.677 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.435. Data: 20 Maritimo games / 20 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 46% | Draw 30% | Estoril 24%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 4.17. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Maritimo at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 56% | Estoril 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 46% | Draw 30% | Estoril 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Maritimo 1.41 / Estoril 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 1.109 / def 0.991 | Estoril attack 0.677 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Estoril xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Estoril kick off?
Maritimo vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Estoril?
Maritimo 0 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Maritimo vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Estoril part of?
Maritimo vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 46% chance of winning, Estoril a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Maritimo and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Estoril in?
Maritimo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Estoril (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 1.11x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.68x) against Maritimo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.36
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Estoril xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.96 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 6D 8L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Maritimo against 1.30 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Maritimo's home form reads 3W 4D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Estoril in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Estoril in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Estoril have gone 6W 8D 6L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Estoril away?
Estoril's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.44 PPG; Estoril away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Estoril have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when Estoril 3-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 56%, Estoril 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Maritimo and 33% for Estoril.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Maritimo's games and 56% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Maritimo's recent games and 33% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Estoril tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Estoril in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Maritimo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo and Estoril finished level at 0-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.41 xG and Estoril 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Maritimo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Estoril landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Estoril attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 46% | Draw 30% | Estoril 24%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 50%, Estoril 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Estoril's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.20 PPG, Estoril 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.