Maritimo 1-2 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 3 October 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo at Estádio dos Barreiros this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Casa Pia's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.43 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Casa Pia are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 57% versus Casa Pia 14%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 86% | Casa Pia 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.07 xG and Casa Pia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.787 / defence 1.179 | Casa Pia attack 0.989 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.052. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Maritimo games / 7 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 32% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 40%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Casa Pia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Casa Pia 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 32% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Maritimo 1.07 / Casa Pia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.787 / def 1.179 | Casa Pia attack 0.989 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Casa Pia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Casa Pia kick off?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Maritimo 1 - 2 Casa Pia.
Where is Maritimo vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Casa Pia part of?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 32% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Maritimo and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Casa Pia in?
Maritimo (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.43 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.79) and Casa Pia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.99x) against Maritimo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.54
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.30
1.23
Casa Pia xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.23 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 0W 0D 7L from 7 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Casa Pia by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 3.14 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia in 14%.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Casa Pia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 7L in their last 7 games (0.00 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.00 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Maritimo
0
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
From 3 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Casa Pia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 67%, Casa Pia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Maritimo) and 33% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia in 67%; Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Casa Pia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Maritimo's recent matches and 33% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Maritimo's recent games and 33% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Maritimo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Maritimo 1-2 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.07 xG and Casa Pia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Casa Pia attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 32% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 40%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 86%, Casa Pia 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.