GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia encounter.

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Analysis

Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Current Form

GIL Vicente's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Casa Pia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours GIL Vicente, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Casa Pia — Casa Pia have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended GIL Vicente 0–0 Casa Pia — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives GIL Vicente an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus Casa Pia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 49% | Casa Pia 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIL Vicente surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Casa Pia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.083 / defence 0.952 | Casa Pia attack 0.972 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.184. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 39 games and Casa Pia's last 39.

Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 28%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Casa Pia 3.57. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (GIL Vicente 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Casa Pia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 40% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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