GIL Vicente 3-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 9 August 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.94 xG and Boavista 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Boavista attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 0.877. Data: 0 GIL Vicente games / 0 Boavista games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Boavista 31%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Boavista 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Boavista's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Boavista 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG GIL Vicente 0.94 / Boavista 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Boavista attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.961 / away 0.877 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Boavista xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Boavista kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Boavista kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
GIL Vicente 3 - 0 Boavista.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Boavista part of?
GIL Vicente vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 36% chance of winning, Boavista a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both GIL Vicente and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Boavista?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Boavista in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.85) and Boavista's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.85x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.04
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.80
0.86
Boavista xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.86 for Boavista, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Pre-Season
Boavista
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 4, Boavista have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Boavista 1-3 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Boavista?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Boavista 3-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.94 xG and Boavista 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Boavista landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Boavista 31%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.